Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for Tasmania

Purpose

AEMO has prepared this page to provide information about its transmission connection point forecasts for Tasmania.

AEMO publishes these connection point forecasts as part of its national transmission planner (NTP) functions and clause 5.20.6(b) of the National Electricity Rules.

2017 AEMO Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for Tasmania

Published: February 2017

Please note: these forecasts are based on information available to AEMO as at 2 December 2016, although AEMO has endeavoured to incorporate more recent information where practical.

This page uses many terms that have meanings defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER). The NER meanings are adopted unless otherwise specified. Other key terms used are listed in the Glossary of the AEMO Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016.

Acknowledgement

AEMO acknowledges TasNetworks’ support, co-operation, and contribution in providing data and information used in these forecasts.

Background

• Aggregate winter maximum demand is greater than summer, as Tasmania is a winter peaking state.
• The difference between 10% and 50% probability of exceedance (POE) forecasts for winter is slightly greater than that for summer. This demonstrates that winter maximum demand exhibits greater year-to-year variability, due to weather sensitivity, than summer maximum demand.
• The forecasts are reconciled to AEMO’s 2016 National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR), which incorporates the effects on demand of forecast population growth, increases in electricity prices, fuel switching, appliance usage, manufacturing, rooftop photovoltaic (PV), and energy efficiency in appliances and buildings.

2017 connection point results and insights

Individual connection point forecasts increase at some locations, and decrease at others. Refer to the dynamic interface for detailed information on individual connection points. 

• Figure 1 (winter) and Figure 2 (summer) show plotted individual 10% POE rates of change for each connection point in Tasmania.
• Table 1 lists connection points with average annual increases or decreases of more than 2%, with their drivers of demand.

Winter forecasts

• Forecast average annual rates of change for 10% POE are between +6.5% (Meadowbank) and -3.3% (Queenstown).
• 55.3% of connection points are forecast to have positive growth or no growth over the outlook period for their 10% POE average annual rates. Of these, 50.0% have a growth rate between 0.0% and 1.0%.
• Of the eight connection points with growth rates above 1.0%, four of these connection points have either new loads connected or transfers from other connection points over the outlook period.
• Load transfers from Lindisfarne to Mornington, Risdon to Mornington, and Devonport to Wesley Vale are scheduled to occur in 2017, while a transfer from Risdon to North Hobart is scheduled to occur in 2019.

Figure 1: Tasmania 10% POE winter 10-year average annual growth rates, 2017 to 2026

 * Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.

   Summer forecasts:

• Forecast average annual rates of change for 10% POE are between +47.9% (Wesley Vale) and -8.0% (Lindisfarne).
• 51.1% of connection points are forecast to have positive growth or no growth over the outlook period for their 10% POE average annual rates. Of these, 45.8% have a growth rate between 0.0% and 1.0%.
• Of the nine connection points with summer growth above 1%, eight of these connection points have either new loads connected or transfers from other connection points over the outlook period.

• Load transfers from Lindisfarne to Mornington, Risdon to Mornington, and Devonport to Wesley Vale are scheduled to occur in 2017, while a transfer from Risdon to North Hobart is scheduled to occur in 2019.

• Even though Tasmania is a winter peaking region, the connection points of Avoca, Derby, Meadowbank, Newton, Port Latta, Palmerston, Railton, and Wayatinah Aux Load 11 displayed higher maximum demand in summer than winter. These connection points, excluding Railton and Wayatinah Aux Load 11, predominantly service irrigation and agriculture-related loads.

Figure 2: Tasmania 10% POE summer 10-year average annual growth rates, 2016-17 to 2025-26

 * Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.

Drivers of forecast demand changes at connection points

 Table 1: Drivers at connection points with average annual increase or decrease greater than 2%

* 2% is set to capture extreme rates. Major industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality. 

Supplementary information

Archive of Previous Tasmanian Forecasts and Reports