Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for Tasmania

Purpose

AEMO has prepared this page to provide information about its transmission connection point forecasts for Tasmania.

AEMO publishes these connection point forecasts in line with clause 5.20.6(b) of the National Electricity Rules, as part of its national transmission planner (NTP) functions. 

2018 AEMO Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for Tasmania

Published: March 2018

Please note: these forecasts are based on information available to AEMO as at 9 March 2018, although AEMO has endeavoured to incorporate more recent information where practical.

This page uses many terms that have meanings defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER). The NER meanings are adopted unless otherwise specified. Other key terms used are listed in the Glossary of the AEMO Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016.

Acknowledgement

AEMO acknowledges TasNetworks’ support, co-operation, and contribution in providing data and information used in these forecasts.

Background

• Aggregate winter maximum demand is greater than summer, as Tasmania is a winter peaking state.
• The difference between 10% and 50% probability of exceedance (POE) forecasts for winter is slightly greater than that for summer. This demonstrates that winter maximum demand exhibits greater year-to-year variability, due to weather sensitivity, than summer maximum demand.
• The forecasts are reconciled to AEMO’s 2018 March Update of Electricity Forecasting Insights, which incorporates the effects on demand of forecast population growth, increases in electricity prices, fuel switching, appliance usage, manufacturing, rooftop photovoltaic (PV), electric vehicles and energy efficiency in appliances and buildings.

2018 connection point results and insights

Individual connection point forecasts increase at some locations, and decrease at others. Refer to the dynamic interface for detailed information on individual connection points. 

• Figure 1 (winter) and Figure 2 (summer) show plotted individual 10% POE rates of change for each connection point in Tasmania (excluding confidential loads).
• Table 1 lists connection points with average annual increases or decreases of more than 2%, with their drivers of demand.

Winter forecasts

• Forecast average annual rates of change for 10% POE are between +2.87% (Rosebery) and - 1.85% (Ulverstone).
• 3% of connection points are forecast to have positive growth or no growth over the outlook period for their 10% POE average annual rates. Growth between 0% and 1% per annum is due to growth in connections and customer demand, supported by the wintertime maximum being scarcely affected by rooftop PV.
• Rosebery is the only connection point having more than 1% growth, due to expected increases in industrial demand.
• Load transfers from Devonport to Wesley Vale are scheduled to complete before winter 2018, increasing Wesley Vale’s maximum demand from historical levels of under 1 MW to 12 MW before the start of the outlook period. This does not impact the growth rate measured between winter 2018 and winter 2027.

Figure 1: Tasmania 10% POE winter 10-year average annual growth rates, 2018 to 2027*

 * Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.

   Summer forecasts:

• Even though Tasmania is a winter peaking region, the connection points of Avoca, Derby, Meadowbank, and Palmerston are forecast to have higher maximum demand in summer than winter. These connection points predominantly service irrigation and agriculture-related loads where the requirement for electricity is higher in summer.
• Forecast average annual rates of change for 10% POE are between +52.15% (Wesley Vale) and -3.09% (Devonport). Load transfers from Devonport to Wesley Vale are scheduled to complete after the 2017-18 summer, so the load transfers are apparent in the second year of the forecast.
• 30% of connection points are forecast to have positive growth or no growth over the outlook period for their 10% POE average annual rates. Of these, 62% have a growth rate between 0.0% and 1.0%.
• For the five connection points with summer growth above 1%, the growth is due to new customer loads being connected and load transfers from other connection points over the outlook period. These changes are impacting summer growth more than winter growth due to the timing of the increases which typically occur in year 1 of the winter forecast and year 2 of the summer forecast.

Figure 2: Tasmania 10% POE summer 10-year average annual growth rates, 2017-18 to 2026-27*

 * Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality. ** Wesley Vale’s growth rate has been clipped in the chart to highlight other connection points. The growth rate for Wesley Vale is 52.15%, due to load transfers from Devonport.

Drivers of forecast demand changes at connection points

 Table 1: Drivers at connection points with average annual increase or decrease greater than 2%*

* 2% is set to capture extreme rates. Major industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality. 

Supplementary information

Archive of Previous Tasmanian Forecasts and Reports