National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) 2015

Update: National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) December 2015

AEMO published the 2015 NEFR in June 2015, providing forecasts of operational consumption and maximum demand for each region across the National Electricity Market (NEM). Since then, AEMO has continued to track the performance of its electricity consumption and maximum demand forecasts against actuals. AEMO has revised its Queensland and Tasmanian forecasts to incorporate new information.

AEMO published the fourth edition of the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) on 18 June 2015.

The 2015 NEFR provides AEMO’s independent electricity consumption and maximum demand forecasts for the National Electricity Market (NEM) and each of the five NEM regions, namely New South Wales (including Australian Capital Territory), Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria, over a 20-year outlook period. It also provides minimum demand forecasts for South Australia.

AEMO’s 2015 NEFR Forecasting Methodology Information Paper will be published in late July 2015.

Unless specified, the 2015 NEFR has been prepared by AEMO using information available to the end of March 2015, however the impact of changes after this date have been assessed where practical.

In 2015, AEMO has made available the following suite of resources:

  • Forecast Accuracy Report 2015
  • 2015 NEFR Overview – An overview of NEM-wide and regional forecasts for the medium consumption scenario over the short term (2014–15 to 2017–18).
  • Detailed Summary of 2015 Electricity Forecasts – A detailed summary of NEM-wide and regional forecasts for the medium consumption scenario over the 20-year NEFR outlook period, and a comparison with the low and high consumption scenarios.
  • Forecasting Dynamic Interface – A web-based portal where users can view graphs and key results, apply their own filters and download NEFR data, accessible at http://forecasting.aemo.com.au/
  • 2015 Minimum demand forecast data for South Australia

 NEFR Documents