National Electricity Forecasting Report 2014

 Electricity consumption trends in Queensland: July–December 2014

A trend of increased electricity consumption in Queensland since July 2014 has emerged, compared to AEMO’s 2014 National Electricity Forecasting Report forecasts.

AEMO has reviewed the data and liaised with industry to better understand what is driving this trend. Together with industry, we have identified that the increase is mostly in the residential and commercial sector. It appears to be driven by consumers’ response to record-breaking temperatures in late October and November 2014 (1), related to increased use of air conditioning. Queensland’s November mean maximum temperature was the highest on record (1) and the state also experienced some of the warmest nights on record (2). 

Estimated rooftop photovoltaic (PV) output (517 GWh) was also less than forecast (585 GWh) between October and December 2014. This was driven by lower-than-expected PV uptake. A decrease in rooftop PV output leads to higher consumption in the residential and commercial sector.
The chart below shows monthly actual consumption for the period July – December for three financial years: 2012–13, 2013–14 and 2014–15. Actual consumption in November and December is the highest it’s been over the past four years. 

We will continue to monitor actual consumption over the summer period to establish if this trend continues.

Actual consumption in Queensland for the period July – December for three financial years: 2012– 13, 2013–14 and 2014–15.

(1): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/qld/summary.shtml
      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs50.pdf
(2): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/aus/mwr-aus-201411.pdf

 

 Update: National Electricity Forecasting Report December 2014

Since the 2014 National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) was published, AEMO has continued to monitor forecast consumption against actual consumption.

AEMO observed a variance of +4.8% in Queensland actual electricity consumption from July to October 2014, compared to the forecasts contained in the 2014 NEFR. To provide stakeholders with up-to-date data, AEMO has revised the Queensland operational consumption forecasts.

Tasmanian consumption and maximum demand has also been updated because it is winter-peaking (unlike other NEM regions), and the latest winter (2014) historical data has been incorporated into the forecast.

As a result of the forecast updates for Queensland and Tasmania, the National Electricity Market (NEM) forecast has also been updated.

2014 NEFR Update  
17 December 2014 | 565 KB (.pdf)
  
2014 NEFR Update NEM
17 December 2014 | 246 KB (.xls)
 
2014 NEFR Update QLD
17 December 2014 | 227 KB (.xls)
 
2014 NEFR Update TAS 
17 December 2014 | 593 KB (.xls)

 

 Action Plan for 2015 National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR)

AEMO published the third edition of the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) on 16 June 2014. As part of its commitment to continuously improve these forecasts, AEMO undertakes an annual review of its forecasting inputs and methodologies. This helps to ensure that the approach captures emerging energy consumption trends and developments.

This Action Plan outlines the areas of further improvement that AEMO intends to focus on when producing the 2015 NEFR.

Action Plan for the 2015 National Electricity Forecasting Report 
28 November 2014 | filesize: 360 KB (.pdf)
 

 

  National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) 2014

AEMO published the third edition of the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) on 16 June 2014.

The 2014 NEFR provides AEMO’s independent electricity consumption forecasts, developed on a consistent basis over the next 10 years for the five National Electricity Market (NEM) regions, namely New South Wales (including ACT), Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria. 

Supporting information papers and reports that document the input data, assumptions, and methodology used to develop AEMO’s annual energy and maximum demand forecasts for the NEM will be published on 30 June 2014.

AEMO’s Forecasting Methodology Information Paper will be published on 31 July 2014.

The 2014 NEFR has been prepared by AEMO using information available to the end of March 2014, however the impact of changes after this date have been assessed where practical.

AEMO has made available a set of forecasting data, including the following:

  • Final regional (state level) and NEM annual energy, and summer and winter maximum demand forecasts for three scenarios (low, medium and high) over the 20-year outlook period from 2013-14 to 2033-34.
  • Components of the forecasts.
  • Data underlying the tables and figures in the National Electricity Forecasting Report.
     

2014 National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) 
16 June 2014 | filesize: 4.26 MB (.pdf)
 

 

  Final NEM and Regional Forecasts

AEMO has made available a set of forecasting data, including the following:

2014 NEFR - NEM 
16 June 2014 |  383 KB (.pdf) | 349 KB (.xls)
   
2014 NEFR - NSW
16 June 2014 |  574 KB (.pdf) | 615 KB (.xls)
  
2014 NEFR - QLD
16 June 2014 | 571 KB (.pdf) | 606 KB (.xls)
  
2014 NEFR - SA
16 June 2014 |  704 KB (.pdf) | 727 KB (.xls)
  
2014 NEFR - TAS
16 June 2014 |  771 KB (.pdf) | 711 KB (.xls)
  
2014 NEFR - VIC
16 June 2014 |  646 KB (.pdf) | 605 KB (.xls)