NEM Electricity Demand Forecasts
AEMO has produced electricity demand forecasts for the National Electricity Market (NEM) since 2012. Prior to that, forecasts were provided by the Transmission Network Service Providers for each NEM region and published as part of the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).
From 2012 to 2016, AEMO published its demand forecasts as the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR). These forecasts can be found here.
In 2017, AEMO published its demand forecasts as the Electricity Forecasting Insights, available here. These forecasts were updated in March 2018.
Since 2015, demand forecasts have been uploaded to AEMO’s Forecasting Data Portal. Forecasts are provided for operational consumption and maximum demand (and, since 2016, minimum demand). For forecast definitions, see this document.
The table below lists the most recent electricity demand forecasts and their publication date.
Forecast publication name
2018 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – Update to auxiliary load forecasts
2018 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – demand forecast
2018 Electricity Forecasting Insights – March 2018 update
2017 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – demand forecast
2017 Electricity Forecasting Insights
2016 National Electricity Forecasting Report - Update
2016 National Electricity Forecasting report - EV Insights
2016 National Electricity Forecasting report
In February 2019, AEMO published its Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper (Methodology Paper), which explains the data sources and methodologies used to forecast annual consumption, and maximum and minimum demand in the NEM. The Methodology Paper can be found here.
Forecast accuracy is assessed for the forecasts used in the Electricity Statement of Opportunities. The forecast accuracy reports are available here.