Scenarios, inputs and assumptions, methodologies and guidelines

AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).

AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. Confidential information is withheld from public release, but is incorporated in the modelling conducted, if necessary, to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.

The documents contained in this page provide the collection of guidelines, methodologies, scenarios and inputs considered in AEMO’s Planning and Forecasting publications. The documents may change as AEMO releases new or updates existing methodologies, inputs, scenarios or assumptions.

2020-21 Input, Assumptions and Scenarios Report Consultation Process

The use of scenario planning is an effective practice to manage investment and business risks when planning in a highly uncertain environment.

Scenarios form a critical aspect of AEMO’s forecasting and planning, providing the information needed to assess future risks, opportunities and development needs in the energy industry. It is vital that the dimensions of scenarios chosen cover the potential breadth of plausible futures impacting on the energy sector and capture the key uncertainties and material drivers of these possible futures in a consistent way.

As part of the consultation process to develop new scenarios for the 2022 ISP, AEMO organised a scenario development workshop with stakeholders. The following are the slides and recording of the presentation of the scenario development workshop outcomes that was presented in a webinar on 22 October 2020.

AEMO presented a subsequent webinar that consolidated the scenarios and settings received from stakeholders in the October workshops. The following are the slides and recording of the webinar, held 11 November 2020. 

2020-21 Scenarios, inputs and assumptions

For 2020-21 publications, AEMO continues to use the scenario narratives developed in 2019 for the 2020 ISP. Inputs used in the scenarios have been updated based on latest information.

The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions currently applied in AEMO’s Forecasting and Planning activities in 2020-21. 

2020 Demand trace data

2019-20 Scenarios, inputs and assumptions

The following documents detail the scenarios, inputs and assumptions used in Forecasting and Planning activities in 2019-20, notably the 2020 ISP.

Archive for inputs and assumptions workbook

Supporting materials

Reference materials used to support the development of the inputs and assumptions.

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