WA Gas Statement of Opportunities
The Western Australian (WA) Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) is an annual report published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) that provides gas market participants and other stakeholders with information about the WA gas industry. It presents forecasts of WA domestic gas demand and potential supply over a 10-year period, including an overview of gas infrastructure and emerging issues affecting the WA gas industry.
The WA GSOO aims to include information and assessments relating to medium and long term natural gas supply and demand and natural gas transmission and storage capacity, as defined in subrule 2(2)(b) of the Gas Service Information (GSI) Rules. Its content is further defined in rule 104 of the GSI Rules.
5-yearly review – WA Gas Statement of Opportunities
The WA GSOO was first published by the Independent Market Operator (IMO) in 2013. In 2015, certain IMO functions transferred to AEMO, including the responsibility for developing and publishing the WA GSOO. AEMO has published the WA GSOO from 2015 onwards. Modifications have been made annually to improve the modelling methodology and forecasting accuracy, to increase engagement with stakeholders, and to address issues of importance to the WA gas industry.
Rule 105 of the GSI Rules requires that AEMO must, at least once in every 5-year period, conduct a review of the GSOO, and that this review must be carried out in consultation with Gas Market Participants and gas industry groups.
The first 5-yearly review was completed in July 2018.
- Five-yearly review of the WA GSOO final report (0.5 MB, pdf)
Please note: Findings from the 5-yearly review process may not be incorporated into the development of the 2018 WA GSOO (due to be published by 31 December 2018), but may be given consideration in future GSOOs.
WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - December 2017
- WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - December 2017 (2.0 MB, pdf)
- WA GSOO Data Register - December 2017 (12.7 MB, xlsx)
- Gas Demand Methodology Report by Marsden Jacobs Associates: The Development of Annual and Peak Gas Demand Forecasts for the Western Australian Gas Market (3.4 MB, pdf)
The key findings of the 2017 WA GSOO are:
- The WA domestic gas market continues to evolve, with new production facilities and gas suppliers, and greater pipeline and gas storage capacity.
- In the near term, to 2020, the domestic gas market is well-supplied.
- WA has a Domestic Gas Policy that requires WA liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects to make gas available to the WA domestic gas market on a long-term basis by setting aside reserves equivalent to 15% of their LNG production.
- Potential gas supply is expected to exceed forecast demand over the entire outlook period, assuming that new reserves are developed. Some uncertainty exists in the medium term, when reserves for domestic-only gas producers are expected to fall and forecast domestic gas prices remain low. If domestic gas prices remain low, new gas reserves may not be developed and supply may not meet demand in the medium to long term. This may be exacerbated given that exploration has fallen further since 2016. Exploration levels must be considered well in advance of potential supply shortfalls, because it can take up to five years to develop a conventional petroleum field.
- WA domestic gas demand growth remains low.
- Continued gas demand growth in WA is dependent on new resources and industrial gas-consuming projects. A mixed outlook persists for WA commodities.
- Under a separate modelling scenario that assumed committed and likely large-scale renewable generation projects proceed, total forecast gas demand is lower across the outlook period compared to the Base scenario forecast.
AEMO is responsible for preparing and publishing the WA GSOO under Part 6 of the Gas Services Information Rules. It is published each year by 31 December. The first four editions of the WA GSOO were published by the Independent Market Operator (IMO).
Supporting documents relating to the previous WA GSOOs can be found below.
Previous WA GSOO reports and supporting documents