AEMO’s 2024 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report provides a 10-year outlook of investment requirements to maintain reliability for Australia’s National Electricity Market.
The report highlights that expected investments in new generation, storage and transmission must be delivered on time and in full to maintain a reliable supply of electricity to homes and businesses.
This includes federal and state government schemes , supported generation projects, actionable transmission developments , the coordination of consumer energy resources, and additional demand flexibility.
AEMO CEO, Daniel Westerman, said the energy transition is well underway, with renewable generation already supplying 40 per cent of the electricity into east coast homes and businesses.
“Investments in renewable generation and storage continue to increase, and the pipeline of new projects continues to expand, filling the gaps being left by the retirement of Australia’s ageing coal fired power stations,” Mr Westerman said.
“Compared to last year’s report, the reliability outlook has improved, assisted by the progress of 5.7 gigawatts of grid-scale generation and storage, and 365 km of new transmission developments.
“This progress, along with delivery of transmission projects, a coal plant extension, and higher contribution from rooftop solar, has improved the reliability outlook,” he said.
AEMO said that the delivery of these expected investments is critical. Modelling indicates reliability gaps at times over the next 10 years if these projects are delayed. These reliability gaps are now projected to be smaller than those forecast previously.
“It is critical that expected investments in generation, storage and transmission are delivered on time and in full,” Mr Westerman said.
“If delays occur to projects already underway or further investment does not materialise, then the outlook for reliability will deteriorate,” he said.
While short-term reliability has improved, AEMO is tendering for off-market reserves in Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia this summer to manage potential low reserve conditions.
In addition to tendering for reserves, AEMO undertakes extensive summer preparations with industry to ensure the power system is prepared for those peak demand periods.
ENDS