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STPASA - Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 25/07/2025
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the SA region for the following period:
From 1400 hrs to 1430 hrs 25/07/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 778 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 777 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Guybal Munjan - Chalumbin 857 275kV line line and Guybal Munjan - Chalumbin 858 275kV line line in QLD1 due to Lightning.
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: QLD1
Lines: Guybal Munjan - Chalumbin 857 275kV line and Guybal Munjan - Chalumbin 858 275kV line
Duration: 23/07/2025 16:02 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
Q-RSCH_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
NONE
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Cancellation of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV line and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.
Cancellation of reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits is no longer reasonably possible. There is no longer any lightning activity in the vicinity of the following lines. Accordingly its classification has reverted to a non-credible contingency event.
Region: NSW1
Lines: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV
Cancellation time: 23/07/2025 10:29
Constraint set(s) revoked:
N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 128282
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV line and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: NSW1
Lines: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV
Duration: 23/07/2025 06:24 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Cancellation of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bannaby - Mt Piper 5A6 500kV line and Bannaby - Mt Piper 5A7 500kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.
Cancellation of reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits is no longer reasonably possible. There is no longer any lightning activity in the vicinity of the following lines. Accordingly its classification has reverted to a non-credible contingency event.
Region: NSW1
Lines: Bannaby - Mt Piper 5A6 500kV and Bannaby - Mt Piper 5A7 500kV
Cancellation time: 23/07/2025 06:14
Constraint set(s) revoked:
N-5A6+5A7_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
VIC1-NSW1
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 128280
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bannaby - Mt Piper 5A6 500kV line and Bannaby - Mt Piper 5A7 500kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: NSW1
Lines: Bannaby - Mt Piper 5A6 500kV and Bannaby - Mt Piper 5A7 500kV
Duration: 23/07/2025 05:11 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
N-5A6+5A7_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
VIC1-NSW1
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Cancellation of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV line and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.
Cancellation of reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits is no longer reasonably possible. There is no longer any lightning activity in the vicinity of the following lines. Accordingly its classification has reverted to a non-credible contingency event.
Region: NSW1
Lines: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV
Cancellation time: 23/07/2025 04:14
Constraint set(s) revoked:
N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 128278
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV line and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.
Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.
Region: NSW1
Lines: Armidale - Dumaresq 8C 330kV and Armidale - Sapphire WF 8E 330kV
Duration: 23/07/2025 03:10 until further notice
Constraint set(s) invoked:
N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations
STPASA - Cancellation of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 25/07/2025
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the SA region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 128259 is cancelled at 0200 hrs 23/07/2025.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations