2020-21 Planning and Forecasting Consultation on Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios

Matter under consultation

AEMO delivers a range of forecasting and planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM), including the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), and the Integrated System Plan (ISP). This consultation relates to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios that AEMO proposes to use in its 2021-22 forecasting and planning activities, including the 2022 ISP. 

AEMO has prepared a Draft Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report (IASR), and an accompanying Inputs and Assumptions workbook which contains the proposed key scenario data. The Draft IASR and workbook include (but are not limited to) detail on:

• The proposed set of new scenarios that have been developed in conjunction with stakeholders
• The CSIRO’s GenCost 2020-21 draft, providing an annual update to generation technology costs
• Updated inputs and assumptions, or details on update processes. 

Invitation for submissions 

Stakeholders were invited to provide written submissions to the questions outlined in the draft IASR, as well as on any other matter related to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios. Submissions were not limited to the specific questions outlined in each chapter. AEMO requested that where possible, submissions should provide evidence that support any views or claims that are put forward.

Submissions closed on Monday 1 February 2021.

Consultation on revised draft scenarios

On 3 March 2021, AEMO held a public workshop on submissions to the Draft IASR, including the presentation of a revised set of draft scenarios, based on stakeholder feedback. The new scenarios were presented on slides 20-24 of the workshop slide pack. A recording of the workshop was made and is available below. Stakeholders were given until 17 March to make written submissions on the revised draft scenarios.

Consultation process 

The National Electricity Rules require AEMO to develop, consult and publish the IASR in accordance with the Australian Energy Regulator’s (AER’s) Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines. Under these Guidelines, AEMO is required to follow a “single stage process” which requires that the publication of this Draft IASR follows from meetings with Consulted Persons.

In developing the Draft IASR and the proposed scenarios, AEMO has sought stakeholder input and feedback through a number of workshops and webinars. The below table provides further detail on the key dates of this formal consultation, framed within our stakeholder engagement to date.

For further information, see the Opportunities for Engagement and FRG webpages.