Matter under consultation
AEMO delivers a range of forecasting and planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM), including the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), and the Integrated System Plan (ISP). This consultation relates to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios that AEMO proposes to use in its 2021-22 forecasting and planning activities, including the 2022 ISP.
AEMO has prepared a Draft Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report (IASR), and an accompanying Inputs and Assumptions workbook which contains the proposed key scenario data. The Draft IASR and workbook include (but are not limited to) detail on:
- The proposed set of new scenarios that have been developed in conjunction with stakeholders
- The CSIRO’s GenCost 2020-21 draft, providing an annual update to generation technology costs
- Updated inputs and assumptions, or details on update processes.
Invitation for submissions
All stakeholders are invited to provide a written submission to the questions outlined in the draft IASR, as well as on any other matter related to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios. Submissions need not address every question posed and do not have to be limited to the specific consultation questions contained in each chapter.
Submissions should be sent via email to forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au and are required to be submitted by Monday 1 February 2021. AEMO requests that where possible, submissions should provide evidence that support any views or claims that are put forward.
Consultation process
The National Electricity Rules require AEMO to develop, consult and publish the IASR in accordance with the Australian Energy Regulator’s (AER’s) Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines. Under these Guidelines, AEMO is required to follow a “single stage process” which requires that the publication of this Draft IASR follows from meetings with Consulted Persons.
In developing the Draft IASR and the proposed scenarios, AEMO has sought stakeholder input and feedback through a number of workshops and webinars. The below table provides further detail on the key dates of this formal consultation, framed within our stakeholder engagement to date.
Consultation steps |
Date |
Hydrogen in the 2021 GSOO Workshop |
18 September 2020 |
Forecasting and Planning Scenarios Workshop |
14 October 2020 |
Forecasting and Planning Scenarios Webinar |
22 October 2020 |
Forecasting and Planning IASR - Scenarios Webinar |
11 November 2020 |
Forecasting and Planning IASR Workshop |
20 November 2020 |
Publication of the draft IASR and call for stakeholder submissions |
11 December 2020 |
Submissions due on Draft IASR |
1 February 2021 |
Publication of the final IASR |
30 July 2021 |
Stakeholder survey
AEMO also invites stakeholders to participate in the following survey to gauge views on the relative likelihood of the scenarios proposed. We ask stakeholders to familiarise themselves with the scenarios by reviewing the main consultation documents, before responding below.
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Previous stakeholder engagement
As part of the consultation process to develop new scenarios, AEMO organised three workshops and two webinars ahead of the publication of the Draft IASR. The below presents the webinar presentation slides and recordings.
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22/10/2020
Scenario narrative development webinar presentation slides
1.76 MB -
22/10/2020
Scenario narrative development webinar presentation recording
44.4 MB -
12/11/2020
2021/22 Forecasting and Planning IASR – Scenarios webinar presentation
1.1 MB -
12/11/2020
2021/22 Forecasting and Planning IASR – Scenarios webinar presentation recording
75.59 MB
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Other supporting documents
The following supporting documents are of relevance to this consultation.
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18/12/2020
Lewis Grey Advisory: Gas Price Projections for the 2021 GSOO
517.76 KB -
18/12/2020
Lewis Grey Advisory: Gas Price Projections for the 2021 GSOO data
155.52 KB -
11/12/2020
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020
1.46 MB -
11/12/2020
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020 - workbook
865.29 KB -
11/12/2020
Wood Mackenzie: Draft Coal cost projections 2020
1.1 MB -
16/06/2020
BIS Oxford Economics: 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts October Update
2.14 MB -
16/06/2020
CSIRO: 2020 Projections for small scaled embedded technologies report
2.48 MB -
23/06/2020
Green Energy Markets: 2020 Projections for distributed energy resources – solar PV and stationary energy battery systems report
2.19 MB -
27/08/2020
AEP Elical: Assessment of Ageing Coal-Fired Generation Reliability
1.4 MB -
11/04/2019
Entura Report Pumped Hydro Cost Modelling
1.02 MB -
27/06/2016
Fuel and Technology Cost Review Report ACIL Allen
1.92 MB -
10/08/2016
ACIL ALLEN - AEMO Emission factors 20160511
147.04 KB -
11/12/2020
Transmission Cost Database Phase 1 Report
1.16 MB -
27/03/2020
2020 GSOO supply input data files
88.22 KB -
30/11/2018
GHD Report - Reference document provided as an action item of the October 2018 meeting
5.83 MB -
11/12/2020
Indicative REZ Boundaries (GIS Data)
46.31 KB
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