2020-21 Planning and Forecasting Consultation on Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios

Matter under consultation

AEMO delivers a range of forecasting and planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM), including the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), and the Integrated System Plan (ISP). This consultation relates to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios that AEMO proposes to use in its 2021-22 forecasting and planning activities, including the 2022 ISP. 

AEMO has prepared a Draft Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report (IASR), and an accompanying Inputs and Assumptions workbook which contains the proposed key scenario data. The Draft IASR and workbook include (but are not limited to) detail on:

• The proposed set of new scenarios that have been developed in conjunction with stakeholders
• The CSIRO’s GenCost 2020-21 draft, providing an annual update to generation technology costs
• Updated inputs and assumptions, or details on update processes. 

Invitation for submissions 

All stakeholders are invited to provide a written submission to the questions outlined in the draft IASR, as well as on any other matter related to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios. Submissions need not address every question posed and do not have to be limited to the specific consultation questions contained in each chapter.

Submissions should be sent via email to forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au and are required to be submitted by Monday 1 February 2021. AEMO requests that where possible, submissions should provide evidence that support any views or claims that are put forward.

Consultation process 

The National Electricity Rules require AEMO to develop, consult and publish the IASR in accordance with the Australian Energy Regulator’s (AER’s) Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines. Under these Guidelines, AEMO is required to follow a “single stage process” which requires that the publication of this Draft IASR follows from meetings with Consulted Persons.

In developing the Draft IASR and the proposed scenarios, AEMO has sought stakeholder input and feedback through a number of workshops and webinars. The below table provides further detail on the key dates of this formal consultation, framed within our stakeholder engagement to date.

Stakeholder survey

AEMO also invites stakeholders to participate in the following survey to gauge views on the relative likelihood of the scenarios proposed. We ask stakeholders to familiarise themselves with the scenarios by reviewing the main consultation documents, before responding below.