Timeline
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Consultation opens / Draft report published20 February 2024
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Procedure change request deadline5 March 2024
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Consultation closes / Submissions due on draft report19 March 2024
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Final report published2 May 2024
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Effective date of Guidelines26 June 2024
Draft report published – 20 February 2024
The publication of the draft report commences AEMO’s expedited consultation on changes to the Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines (Guidelines) (the proposal) under the National Electricity Rules (NER).
The majority of the proposed changes relate to the underlying Forecasting Uncertainty Measure (FUM) model and its inputs as follows:
- Replacing the current Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model with an alternative in-house Machine Learning (ML) model using quantile regression (QR) to calculate the FUM.
- Inclusion of a single input variable (time-of-day) to calculate the FUM.
Both proposed changes would not impact upon the intent of the current Guidelines. The main changes required to the Guidelines is the detail surrounding the model and inputs used to create the FUM value as it currently stands, as outlined in Appendix A of the Guidelines. In addition, minor drafting updates throughout the Guidelines have been included for consistency and accuracy, to reflect changes resulting from Five-Minute Settlement (5MS) and Semi-Scheduled Generator’s available capacity. These proposed changes were presented at the Electricity Wholesale Consultative Forum (EWCF) on 20 February 2024 and 19 March 2024, and the presentation slides and meeting minutes can be found on the AEMO website.
AEMO invites written submissions from interested persons on the draft report and draft proposal to operationsstakeholders@aemo.com.au by 5:00pm (AEDT) on 19 March 2024.
Final report published – 2 May 2024
In February 2024, AEMO published a draft report and proposal which provided stakeholders a summary of AEMO’s intended changes to the Guidelines. The intent of the consultation was to propose changes to improve resiliency and reduce operational risks related to externally provided software applications.
AEMO received three submissions in response to the draft report. These submissions were generally supportive of the proposed changes, but also requested further information and clarification on the impact of seasonality on the FUM calculation, and recommended AEMO change the current confidence level of 95% to 50%. In addition, two of these submissions sought further clarification regarding the August 2023 review of the Guidelines.
Having considered the matters raised in submissions to the draft report and at Electricity Wholesale Consultative Forum meetings, AEMO’s final determination is to amend the Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines in the form published below in accordance with NER 4.8.4A and NER 8.9.
The final amendments to the Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines differ from the draft determination in the following material respects:
- Renaming the ‘time-of-day’ input variable to ‘timestamp’.
- Updating the effective date to 26 June 2024.
The additional marked changes highlighted in yellow reflect the National Electricity Amendment (Integrating energy storage systems into the NEM) Rule 2021 No.13 and National Electricity Amendment (Implementing integrated energy storage systems) Rule 2023 No.2 to make the Guidelines consistent with and aligned to the NER, as with effect from 3 June 2024.
AEMO intends to make the amended version of the Guidelines effective on 26 June 2024. The current Guidelines document can be found on the AEMO website.
Documents
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02/05/2024
Final Report and Determination - Changes to Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines
355.47 KB -
02/05/2024
Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines V3.0
1.03 MB -
02/05/2024
Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines V3.0 - marked changes
1.19 MB -
20/02/2024
Draft report – Changes to Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines
454.11 KB -
20/02/2024
Draft proposal – Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines V3.0 – marked changes
1.17 MB