Demand Side Participation forecast methodology consultation

AEMO’s Demand Side Participation (DSP) forecast is an input into a number of AEMO reliability and planning processes in the National Electricity Market (NEM), including:

• The Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MT PASA).
• The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) and its associated Reliability Forecast.
• The Integrated System Plan (ISP).

AEMO is required to produce Reliability Forecasts under the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO) in accordance with Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines developed by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) and Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines established by AEMO.

The Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines outlined a number of methodology documents that explain the methodologies used for the various processes required to produce the Reliability Forecast. These methodology documents must be consulted on at least every four years using the AER’s Forecasting Best Practice Consultation Procedure, to determine:

• The fundamental methodologies needed in the forecasting processes.
• The components on which the forecasts are to be based, and the way they are to be determined and used.
• The stakeholder engagement process for determining the forecasting methodologies, inputs, and assumptions.

As part of this process AEMO is currently consulting on the DSP methodology.

Consultation Timeline

Demand Side Participation forecast methodology issues paper

On 26 February 2020, AEMO started the consultation on its DSP forecast methodology with the publication of its Notice of First Stage of Consultation and associated Issues Paper:

For additional detail on the current approach, refer to the Demand Side Participation Forecast and Methodology Document from August 2019.