Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Consultation

26/05/2021
Market National Electricity Market
StageFinal Report
ConvenorAEMO NEM
Initiated18/12/2020
Accepting submissions?No

AEMO is currently consulting on its Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology under section 2.1 of the AER’s Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines in accordance with the consultation process in Appendix A.  The Methodology forms part of AEMO’s Forecasting Approach.

As AEMO has not previously formally consulted on this methodology under the requirements of the Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines, AEMO invites comment from stakeholders on any matter contained in the methodology. To aid stakeholders in providing feedback, several questions are posed throughout the methodology.

AEMO notes that historically the methodology has been updated and published annually. This version’s main difference to prior versions is the removal of inputs and assumptions, which are now covered in AEMO’s Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report[1] (IASR).

[1] See: https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp/current-inputs-assumptions-and-scenarios.

The Consultation Process

Consultation Timeline

Stage

Indicative date

Status

Issues paper and notice of consultation published

18 December 2020

Complete

Submissions to issues paper due

21 January 2021

Complete

Draft determination published

16 March 2021

Complete

Submissions to draft determination due

15 April 2021

Complete

Final determination published

26 May 2021

Complete

Invitation to Make Submissions

AEMO invites written submissions on the Draft Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology, including any alternative or additional proposals you consider may better meet the FBPG, objectives of this consultation and the national electricity objective in section 7 of the National Electricity Law. 

This consultation seeks feedback on the appropriateness of the methodologies for use in AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) and other medium to longer term reliability assessments and system planning purposes, including the Integrated System Plan (ISP).

Please identify any parts of your submission that you wish to remain confidential, and explain why.  AEMO may still publish that information if it does not consider it to be confidential, but will consult with you before doing so. 

Please note that material identified as confidential may be given less weight in the decision-making process than material that is published.

Meetings

In your submission, you may request a meeting with AEMO to discuss the matter under consultation, stating why you consider a meeting is necessary or desirable.

If appropriate, meetings may be held jointly with other Consulted Persons. Subject to confidentiality restrictions, AEMO will generally make details of matters discussed at a meeting available to other Consulted Persons, and may publish them.

Closing Date and Time

Submissions in response to the Notice of Consultation should be sent by email to energy.forecasting@aemo.com.au, to reach AEMO by 5.00pm (Melbourne time) on 15 April 2021.

All submissions must be forwarded in electronic format (either pdf or Word).  Please send any queries about this consultation to the same email address. 

Submissions received after the closing date and time will not be valid, and AEMO is not obliged to consider them.  Any late submissions should explain the reason for lateness and the detriment to you if AEMO does not consider your submission.

Publication

All submissions will be published on AEMO’s website, other than confidential content. 

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