AEMO has briefed the energy industry on system readiness and reliability for the upcoming summer across Australia’s east and west coast power systems.
Forecasts indicate average to above-average temperatures for most of the country, coupled with potential above-average rainfall and possible flooding in parts of South Australia, Queensland, Victoria, and parts of Western Australia.
AEMO’s Executive General Manager of Operations, Michael Gatt, stated that months of preparation have been undertaken to support the reliability of Australia’s power systems over the summer period.
“The advice is temperatures will be similar to last summer for most of Australia, with potential for above average rainfall and flooding in some states,” Mr Gatt said.
“Fuel storage levels are normal across the National Electricity Market (NEM). Gas supply levels need to be carefully managed if used to support peak electricity demand periods on the east coast, particularly in Victoria.
“Synchronous generation availability, coal, gas and hydro, is expected to be similar to previous summer periods, noting the return of Callide C in Queensland and some reduced capacity in NSW, TAS and SA, including the mothballing of Snuggery and Port Lincoln power stations,” he said.
Since September last year, 3,175 megawatts (MW) of new generation and storage projects have been commissioned to full output in the NEM. These include grid-scale solar (1,010 MW) wind (940 MW) and batteries (750 MW).
A further 750 MW of projects are on track to reach full capacity in December, providing further generation for when we need it the most.
“In the last week of spring, challenging operational conditions emerged in New South Wales, with limited localised issues and no widespread customer impacts,” Mr Gatt said.
“Batteries played an important role in managing that situation, so it is pleasing that ahead of summer available battery generation has grown by 58% across the NEM.
AEMO also has prepared procedures for managing minimum system load conditions which can occur during sunny days with mild temperatures and low demand. These occur primarily on weekends or public holidays when electricity usage is generally reduced.
AEMO will work with businesses to manage planned transmission and generation outages for necessary maintenance.
“Should high electricity demand coupled with unplanned transmission and generation outages threaten reliability, recalling outages may be required,” he said.
In August, AEMO published the 2024 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities, forecasting possible reliability gaps in New South Wales (265 MW), South Australia (200 MW) and Victoria (10 MW) this summer.
In response, AEMO is tendering for Interim Reliability Reserves (IRR) to address the gaps in New South Wales and South Australia.
Additionally, emergency reserve providers are on standby to address short-notice requirements across the NEM.
In Western Australia’s Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), synchronous generation availability is expected to be similar to last summer. The Collie and Kwinana 2 Batteries will have a capacity of around 425 MW once fully operational. Additionally, Muja 6 (~190 MW) will be operating in ‘reserve outage mode’ until its retirement on 1 April 2025.
To fill a residual shortfall identified for the upcoming summer, AEMO is tendering for up to 285 MW in supplementary capacity, with contracts to take effect from 1 December 2024.
“We've had a strong response to the supplementary capacity tender, and once we have finished negotiating those contracts, AEMO will publish the amount procured,” Mr Gatt said.
"Across Australia, AEMO has undertaken extensive preparation ahead of summer. However, risks remain and AEMO will continue to monitor the situation and take the necessary actions if required,” he added.
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