Transmission Connection Point Forecasting
AEMO publishes these connection point forecasts as part of its national transmission planner (NTP) functions and in accordance with clause 5.22.18(b) of the National Electricity Rules. These forecasts are designed to increase transparency, leading to more efficient network investment decisions and ultimately providing long-term benefits to energy consumers.
An overview of the methodology used for forecasting demand at the transmission connection point level across the NEM in 2020 can be found below:
A detailed methodology report will be published in Q1 2021. The methodology has been enhanced from previous versions to meet the following goals:
- Produce forecasts for minimum demand, in addition to maximum demand
- Allow changes in time of day when minimum demand occurs
- Account for effects of behind-the-meter technologies at different times of day
- Avoid reliance on reconciliation with regional forecasts by directly accounting for spatial demand drivers