2023 - 24 inputs, assumptions and scenarios

AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).

AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. Confidential information is withheld from public release, but is incorporated in the modelling conducted, if necessary, to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.

2023 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios  

AEMO completed consultation on the 2023 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios (IASR) and the 2023 Transmission Expansion Options Report in July 2023. These reports will be used to develop the 2024 ISP.

The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions currently applied in AEMO’s 2023-24 Forecasting and Planning activities.

2024 ISP Delphi Panel

On 1 September 2023, AEMO held the 2024 ISP Delphi Panel to assess the likelihood of the three scenarios being modelled for the 2024 ISP. The panel included a diverse range of stakeholders, including consumer and community advocates, as well as representatives from government, industry associations, networks, academics, and generators.

The Delphi Panel provided AEMO with an anonymous, expert stakeholder view of the relative likelihood of each the 2023 IASR’s three core scenarios for the 2024 ISP. AEMO has considered the results and insights provided in this process, and will use the scenario likelihoods as voted in the Delphi Panel process as each scenario’s weightings to evaluate the draft Optimal Development Path and other insights that will be within the Draft 2024 ISP. AEMO has also selected the Step Change scenario as the most likely scenario for the Draft 2024 ISP.

Supporting materials for 2023