2023 - 24 inputs, assumptions and scenarios
AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. Confidential information is withheld from public release, but is incorporated in the modelling conducted, if necessary, to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.
2023 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios
AEMO completed consultation on the 2023 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios (IASR) and the 2023 Transmission Expansion Options Report in July 2023. These reports will be used to develop the 2024 ISP.
The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions currently applied in AEMO’s 2023-24 Forecasting and Planning activities.
AEMO’s Transmission Cost Database is available on the Transmission Cost Database webpage.
Reports
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15/12/2023
Addendum to the 2023 Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios Report
1.07 MB -
08/09/2023
2023 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report
This report contains the description of the 2023 inputs, assumptions and scenarios to be used in AEMO’s 2023-24 Forecasting and Planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM).
7.41 MB -
28/07/2023
2023 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report Infographic
This infographic highlights the key elements and scenarios from the 2023 IASR.
178.44 KB -
08/09/2023
2023 IASR Assumptions Workbook
9.48 MB -
28/07/2023
2023 Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios Consultation Summary Report
This report outlines how the 2023 IASR incorporated stakeholder consultation feedback.
1.37 MB -
06/09/2023
2023 Transmission Expansion Options Report
6.58 MB -
28/07/2023
2023 Transmission Expansion Options Consultation Summary Report
This report outlines how the 2023 Transmission Expansion Options Report incorporated stakeholder feedback.
1.48 MB
2024 ISP Delphi Panel
On 1 September 2023, AEMO held the 2024 ISP Delphi Panel to assess the likelihood of the three scenarios being modelled for the 2024 ISP. The panel included a diverse range of stakeholders, including consumer and community advocates, as well as representatives from government, industry associations, networks, academics, and generators.
The Delphi Panel provided AEMO with an anonymous, expert stakeholder view of the relative likelihood of each the 2023 IASR’s three core scenarios for the 2024 ISP. AEMO has considered the results and insights provided in this process, and will use the scenario likelihoods as voted in the Delphi Panel process as each scenario’s weightings to evaluate the draft Optimal Development Path and other insights that will be within the Draft 2024 ISP. AEMO has also selected the Step Change scenario as the most likely scenario for the Draft 2024 ISP.
Supporting materials for 2023
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2023 IASR reference materials
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28/07/2023
2023 Transmission Expansion Options Report v1.0
7.08 MB -
10/08/2023
2023 Transmission Expansion Options Report v1.1
6.74 MB -
09/09/2022
BIS Oxford Economics: 2022 Commodities Scenario Forecast Output file
105.78 KB -
09/09/2022
BIS Oxford Economics: 2022 Commodities Scenario Forecast Report
1.17 MB -
13/07/2022
BIS Oxford Economics: 2022 Macroeconomic Projections Report
2.97 MB -
28/07/2023
SPR: 2023 Energy Efficiency forecast report
3.36 MB -
28/07/2023
AEMO: 2023 Electric Vehicle workbook
493.45 KB -
28/07/2023
ACIL Allen: 2023 Natural gas price forecast workbook
366.14 KB -
28/07/2023
ACIL Allen: 2023 Natural gas price forecast report
875.87 KB -
28/07/2023
AEMO: 2023 Indicative REZ boundaries
1.18 MB -
16/12/2022
AEP Elical: 2020 Assessment of Ageing Coal-Fired Generation Reliability
1.4 MB -
16/12/2022
Aurecon: 2022 Cost and Technical Parameters Review
2.84 MB -
16/12/2022
Aurecon: 2022 Cost and Technical Parameters Review – workbook
59.05 KB -
28/07/2023
Oxford Economics Australia: 2023 Cost of Capital survey report
950.21 KB -
30/11/2022
CSIRO: 2022 Electric Vehicles Forecasts Report
1.91 MB -
16/12/2022
CSIRO: 2022 Solar PV and Battery Projections Report
1.82 MB -
16/12/2022
CSIRO and ClimateWorks Centre: 2022 Multisector modelling
4.44 MB -
07/12/2018
Entura: Pumped Hydro cost modelling
1.02 MB -
16/12/2022
GEM: 2022 Solar PV and Battery Projections Report
2.92 MB -
16/12/2022
Synergies: Updating the 2022 discount rate
374 KB
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2023 Transmission Expansion Option Report reference materials
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02/05/2023
Transmission Cost Database User Manual
1.23 MB -
28/07/2023
Mott MacDonald: Transmission Cost Database Update final report
1.26 MB -
06/09/2023
2023 Cost estimates
4.81 MB -
28/07/2023
Preparatory Activities Report: AEMO Victorian Planning: South West Victoria REZ expansion
3.42 MB -
28/07/2023
Preparatory Activities Report: ElectraNet: Mid North South Australia REZ expansion
1.77 MB -
28/07/2023
Preparatory Activities Report: ElectraNet: South East South Australia REZ expansion
1.29 MB -
28/07/2023
Preparatory Activities Report: Powerlink: Darling Downs REZ expansion
1.14 MB -
28/07/2023
Preparatory Activities Report: Powerlink: Queensland – New South Wales (QNI) Connect
2.02 MB -
25/03/2024
Preparatory Activities Report: Transgrid: Queensland - New South Wales (QNI) Connect - March 2024 Addendum
3.23 MB -
25/03/2024
Preparatory Activities Report: Transgrid: Reinforcing Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong Supply - March 2024 Addendum
1.55 MB
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Other relevant input sources