NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO)
The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) provides technical and market data that informs the decision-making processes of market participants, new investors, and jurisdictional bodies as they assess opportunities in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over a 10-year outlook period.
The NEM ESOO incorporates a reliability assessment against the reliability standard and interim reliability measure defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER) clause 3.9.3C and AEMO’s Reliability Forecast under the Retailer Reliability Obligations (RRO).
The Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines describe how AEMO implements the reliability standard across its reliability processes, including the approach and assumptions in relation to the ESOO.
The Reliability Forecast
The implementation of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO) was agreed at the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Energy Council meeting on 26 October 2018. The necessary legislative and National Electricity Rules (NER) changes took effect on 1 July 2019.
A key component of the RRO is the calculation of a five-year reliability forecast and five-year indicative reliability forecast for each NEM region, to be published in the ESOO. If the reliability forecast identifies a material reliability gap three years ahead, AEMO will submit a reliability instrument request to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER).
In the 2020 ESOO AEMO forecast a 154 MW reliability gap in New South Wales in 2023-24. Accordingly, on 27 November 2020, AEMO requested the AER to make a T-3 reliability instrument.
The Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines apply for the reliability forecast produced as part of the 2020 ESOO. The Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines were updated for the National Electricity Amendment (Retailer Reliability Obligation trigger) Rule 2020 that commenced on 26 November 2020. Final Reliability Forecast Guidelines are to be published by 28 February 2021 as per NER clause 11.116.4(c).
The ESOO and Reliability Forecast methodology document explains the key types of inputs and key methodologies used to calculate expected USE outcomes and details how the reliability gap period and reliability gap are determined.
May 2021 ESOO Update
National Electricity Rules (NER) clause 3.13.3A (b) requires AEMO to publish updates to the statement of opportunities when new information becomes available that materially changes the supply or demand projections, including plant retirements. The recent announcement that all four units at Yallourn Power Station will be withdrawn on 30 June 2028 is considered significant new information, requiring a published update to the 2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), published in August 2020.
2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities
The 2020 ESOO presents AEMO’s outlook of supply adequacy to 2029–30 under a number of scenarios and sensitivities and explores the potential challenges and opportunities arising due to rapidly falling minimum demand.
To view reliability outcomes by region, see:
To view demand forecasts by region, see:
2020 ESOO inputs and assumptions
For the purpose of the National Electricity Rules Clause 3.13.3A(a), in addition to the ESOO and accompanying documents published on this page, the following information should be considered part of the 2020 ESOO:
NEM generation information July 2020 v2821.95 KB
2020 forecasting and planning inputs, assumptions and scenarios report (IASR)2.92 MB
2020 Inputs and assumptions workbook
This spreadsheet contains key scenario data used as inputs in AEMO’s market models for 2020 Planning and Forecasting activities. This data reflects a starting point for modelling, which may be refined as the processes evolve.8.21 MB
Note that the 2020 Inputs and Assumptions Workbook contains data not necessarily utilised in the ESOO, incorporating future potential developments appropriate to the Integrated System Plan or other Forecasting and Planning analyses.
In addition, the following reports describe inputs applied in the ESOO:
AEP Elical: Assessment of Ageing Coal-Fired Generation Reliability1.4 MB
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts2.13 MB
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts - COVID-19 update
BIS Oxford Economics provided an updated range on the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, considering newer information available after the initial forecasts were finalised. AEMO’s forecasting considers both the original forecasts and the COVID-19 update.744.12 KB
CSIRO: 2020 Projections for small scaled embedded technologies report2.48 MB
Green Energy Markets: 2020 Projections for distributed energy resources – solar PV and stationary energy battery systems report2.19 MB