Forecasting and planning methodologies and guidelines
In addition to the formal scenarios and methodologies provided on the Scenarios, Inputs, Assumptions, Methodologies and Guidelines pages, AEMO also develops guidelines and frameworks for a variety of areas relating to forecasting and planning the National Electricity Market. These are captured in this section of the site.
The following reports and guidelines contain descriptions of the methodologies and processes applied in AEMO’s demand and energy forecasting, market modelling and power system planning.
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31/08/2023
ESOO and Reliability Forecast Methodology Document
938.82 KB -
31/08/2023
Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology
5.62 MB -
29/06/2018
2018 system strength requirements methodology
This document contains descriptions of the methodology AEMO uses to determine fault level nodes in each region, and calculation methods used to determine the minimum three phase fault levels to be maintained at these fault level nodes. This document is in effect until 30 November 2022.
5.27 MB -
29/06/2018
2018 Inertia Requirements Methodology
This document presents the methodology AEMO used to define inertia sub-networks in the NEM, and the calculation methods used to determine the satisfactory and secure inertia levels needed in these sub-networks.
2.86 MB -
17/05/2018
Medium Term Projected Adequacy System Assessment (MT-PASA) process description
This document outlines the procedure used in administering the MT PASA, which assesses power system security and reliability under 10% Probability of Exceedance (POE) and 50% POE demand conditions based on generator availability and network capabilities.
924.36 KB -
21/08/2020
Demand Side Participation Forecasting Methodology - For consultation
709.63 KB
Methodology archive
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31/08/2022
ESOO and Reliability Forecast Methodology Document
888.45 KB -
31/08/2022
Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology
6.34 MB -
02/03/2021
ESOO and Reliability Forecast methodology document
818.21 KB -
26/05/2021
Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology
8.42 MB -
27/08/2020
Electricity demand forecasting methodology information paper
2.43 MB -
27/08/2020
ESOO and Reliability Forecast methodology document
700.54 KB -
30/07/2020
Market modelling methodology report
This document contains descriptions of AEMO’s various methodologies for simulating integrated energy supply developments for the electricity and gas systems.
1.66 MB -
12/07/2019
Reliability forecasting methodology paper
This document explains the key inputs and assumptions AEMO will use to determine whether a reliability gap exists in the context of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO), and the methodology for determining the parameters of any reliability gap.
509.9 KB -
21/08/2019
Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) methodology
This document explains the key supply inputs and methodologies involved in producing the ESOO outcomes in more detail.
382.62 KB -
21/08/2019
Electricity demand forecasting methodology information paper
This document contains descriptions of AEMO’s various forecasting methods for estimating future energy consumption across consumer segments and regions, as well as estimating Maximum Demand and Minimum Demand for various probability thresholds.
2.12 MB