2023 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO)

May update to the 2023 ESOO

On 21 May 2024, AEMO published the Update to the 2023 ESOO, which updates its modelling to consider new information including changes to advised mothballing and retirement of generators in some market regions, advancement of approximately 4.6 gigawatts (GW) of new generation and storage capacity and revised commissioning dates for transmission projects. The Update to the 2023 ESOO provides an updated outlook of supply adequacy.

2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunities

The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) provides technical and market data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) over a 10-year period to inform the planning and decision-making of market participants, new investors, and jurisdictional bodies.

The NEM ESOO incorporates AEMO’s Reliability Forecast under the Retailer Reliability Obligations (RRO). The 2023 ESOO also incorporates the 2023 Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP).

On 27 September 2023, AEMO published the 'September 2023 Update to the Electricity Statement of Opportunities' to implement the ‘Extending the application of the IRM to the RRO’ rule change.

The 2023 ESOO presents AEMO’s outlook of supply adequacy to 2032-33.

On 27 September 2023, AEMO published the 'September 2023 Update to the Electricity Statement of Opportunities' to implement the ‘Extending the application of the IRM to the RRO’ rule change.

2023 ESOO webinar recording

To view demand forecasts per region, see:

The Reliability Forecast and Guidelines

The implementation of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO) was agreed at the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Energy Council meeting on 26 October 2018. The necessary legislative and National Electricity Rules (NER) changes took effect on 1 July 2019.

A key component of the RRO is the calculation of a five-year reliability forecast and five-year indicative reliability forecast for each NEM region, to be published in the ESOO. If the reliability forecast identifies a material reliability gap in the required timeframes, AEMO will submit a reliability instrument request to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER).

The Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines describe how AEMO implements the reliability standard across its reliability processes, including the approach and assumptions in relation to the ESOO.

The ESOO and Reliability Forecast methodology document explains the types of inputs and key methodologies used to calculate expected USE outcomes and details how the reliability gap period and reliability gap are determined.

Based on the reliability gaps reported in the 2023 ESOO, AEMO is requesting the AER to consider making reliability instruments for New South Wales in 2026-27 and Victoria in 2026-27.

Based on the reliability gaps reported in the September 2023 Update to the ESOO, AEMO is requesting the AER to consider making reliability instruments for South Australia in 2026-27.

Following completion of the forecast reliability gap period in South Australia 8 January 2024 to 29 February 2024, AEMO notified AER that there were no compliance trading intervals this period.

Further detail on AEMO’s Forecasting Approach is available here

2023 ESOO inputs and assumptions

For the purpose of the National Electricity Rules Clause 3.13.3A(a), in addition to the ESOO and accompanying documents published on this page, the following information should be considered part of the 2023 ESOO:

Note that the 2023 Inputs and Assumptions Report and Workbook contains information not necessarily applied in the ESOO, incorporating other data appropriate to the Integrated System Plan or other Forecasting and Planning work. Refer Section 1.3 of the 2023 ESOO for what sections of the 2023 IASR apply to the ESOO for Reliability Forecast purposes.

Consultant reports supporting the development of the 2023 ESOO: