Each year, with the
increase of extreme weather events and penetration of renewables on the grid,
we’re seeing changes in the way we need to operate the power system. The
ability to forecast these conditions accurately is becoming more important as
we work to deliver safe and reliable energy to all Australians.
As a result of this, and
extensive works done over the past two years by AEMO’s Operations Forecasting
team that identified a limit to the accuracy of wind, solar and demand
forecasts due to the unpredictability of weather forecasts, AEMO has teamed up
with industry stakeholders on a project that will lead the way for the next
generation of energy forecasting.
Announced last week on behalf of the Australian Government, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) are providing Solcast with $994,685 in funding to conduct its Gridded Renewables Nowcasting Demonstration project. The 12-month project will deliver more frequently updated, high resolution weather forecasts specifically designed for the Australian energy industry.
Through the innovative
live demonstration of gridded, automatic weather forecasts in South Australia
(SA), Solcast aims to enhance existing forecasting services by developing a
proof of concept demonstration of a forecasting tool which will help to track
and predict renewable output in real time.
As part of its commitment
and support of the project, AEMO will undertake a key role in testing and
verifying the project outputs.
“Situational awareness and
operational forecasting are critical functions for AEMO as the generation fleet
becomes increasingly weather dependent,” said Matthew Clemow, AEMO’s acting
Chief Operations Officer.
“We are confident that
through this initiative, Solcast, backed by ARENA, will provide enhanced
forecasting products and services to support AEMO’s role in shaping a better
energy future for all Australians.”
Solcast will utilise a
range of data sets and data streams, including historical surface meteorological
measurement data, and wind and solar farm weather data, to develop high quality
forecasts. These forecasts will be shared via project partners, Weatherzone and
Tesla Asia Pacific, to be assessed and used by AEMO, the local distribution
network operator (SA Power Networks), retailers, and generator asset operators.
“South Australia is the
ultimate test bed for this Nowcasting project.
It has world leading penetrations of wind and solar generation together
with very weather dependent demand. High
summer temperatures in particular are an aspect of the South Australian climate
that, at times, presents some very challenging operational conditions.” said
Mike Davidson, AEMO’s Manager Operational Forecasting.
“Over the next 18 months,
AEMO’s Operational Forecasting team will be testing the use of the improved
forecasts in our day-to-day forecasting activities, including utilising them as
an additional source of information during the critical summer operations
period.”
A number of products are
being trialled using the improved weather Nowcasts from Solcast. The products
that will be tried and tested by AEMO include:
•
Enhanced weather forecasts from
Weatherzone that will feed into our demand forecasting system for the NEM and
help with weather-based risk assessment
•
Wind forecasts from Weatherzone
that will complement the existing wind forecasts in the Australian Wind Energy
Forecasting System (AWEFS), providing critical risk and uncertainty information
•
Demand forecasts from Tesla
Forecasting, which build on Operational Forecasting’s consensus approach to
demand forecasting, where we utilise a number of demand forecasts to help
inform our decision making and risk analysis
•
Enhanced solar forecasts (both
rooftop-PV and large-scale solar) from Solcast that will complement the
existing solar forecasts from the Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System
(ASEFS)
AEMO looks forward to
supporting the project and working with Solcast on this highly innovative
initiative.
For
all the latest news, insights and
analysis from the Australian energy industry subscribe to our fortnightly
newsletter and download the Energy Live app on Apple or Android.