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Hydrogen in the 2021 GSOO Workshop18 September 2020
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Forecasting and Planning Scenarios Workshop14 October 2020
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Forecasting and Planning Scenarios Webinar22 October 2020
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Forecasting and Planning IASR Scenarios Webinar11 November 2020
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Forecasting and Planning IASR Workshop20 November 2020
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Publication of the draft IASR and call for stakeholder submissions11 December 2020
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Submissions due on Draft IASR1 February 2021
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Webinar on submissions and revised scenarios3 March 2021
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Submissions on revised scenarios close17 March 2021
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Publication of the final IASR30 July 2021
Matter under consultation
AEMO delivers a range of forecasting and planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM), including the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), and the Integrated System Plan (ISP). This consultation relates to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios that AEMO proposes to use in its 2021-22 forecasting and planning activities, including the 2022 ISP.
AEMO has prepared an Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report (IASR), and an accompanying Inputs and Assumptions workbook which contains the proposed key scenario data. The IASR and workbook include (but are not limited to) detail on:
- The set of new scenarios that have been developed in conjunction with stakeholders
- The CSIRO’s GenCost 2020-21 draft, providing an annual update to generation technology costs
- Updated inputs and assumptions, or details on update processes.
Final Reports
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10/12/2021
Addendum to the 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report
This report contains additional information on key issues discussed in the 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report.
524.86 KB -
30/07/2021
2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report
This report contains the description of the 2021-22 inputs, assumptions and scenarios used in AEMO’s 2021-22 Forecasting and Planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM).
5.26 MB -
30/07/2021
2021 IASR consultation summary report
This report outlines how AEMO has taken stakeholder feedback into account in developing the 2021 IASR.
2.03 MB -
10/12/2021
2021 Inputs and assumptions workbook
This spreadsheet contains key scenario data to be used as inputs in AEMO’s market models for 2021 Planning and Forecasting activities. This version contains the latest input data to be used for the 2022 ISP modelling
9.76 MB
Supporting materials for 2021 (including for the 2022 ISP)
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Reference materials
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30/07/2021
Transmission Cost Database Output Files
5.04 MB -
28/05/2021
Transmission Cost Database - GHD Report
4.64 MB -
10/12/2021
Transmission Cost Database - User Manual
1.23 MB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities CQSQ Transmission Link
878.91 KB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities Gladstone Grid Reinforcement
1.45 MB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities QNI Medium and Large
1.23 MB -
11/12/2020
Transmission Cost Database Phase 1 Report
1.16 MB -
30/07/2021
CSIRO Multi-sector modelling
3.32 MB -
16/06/2021
BIS Oxford Economics 2021 Macroeconomic Projections Report
3.14 MB -
16/06/2021
CSIRO 2021 DER Forecasts Report
1.87 MB -
16/06/2021
GEM 2021 DER Forecasts Report
9.9 MB -
16/06/2021
CSIRO 2021 EV Forecasts Report
1.47 MB -
30/07/2021
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020
2.35 MB -
30/07/2021
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020 - workbook
867.92 KB -
11/04/2019
Entura Report Pumped Hydro Cost Modelling
1.02 MB -
30/11/2018
GHD Report - Reference document provided as an action item of the October 2018 meeting
5.83 MB -
30/11/2018
GHD Data package - Reference document provided as an action item of the October 2018 meeting
565.98 KB -
18/12/2020
Lewis Grey Advisory: Gas Price Projections for the 2021 GSOO
517.76 KB -
30/07/2021
Wood Mackenzie Coal Price Forecast
1.09 MB -
27/06/2016
Fuel and Technology Cost Review Report ACIL Allen
1.92 MB -
27/03/2020
2020 GSOO supply input data files
88.22 KB -
30/07/2021
Strategy Policy Research: Energy Efficiency Forecasts 2021 – Final Report
9.44 MB -
30/07/2021
Synergies Discount Rate report
981.15 KB -
10/12/2021
Indicative REZ boundaries 2021 - GIS data
52 KB
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Other relevant input sources
Submissions to Draft IASR
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18/02/2021
Down Under Nuclear Energy
145.95 KB -
18/02/2021
ECA
196.82 KB -
12/03/2021
Electranet
113.29 KB -
12/03/2021
Energy Estate
924.71 KB -
18/02/2021
Energy Networks Australia
912.27 KB -
18/02/2021
Energy Queensland
176.24 KB -
18/02/2021
EnergyAustralia
377.41 KB -
18/02/2021
Futureye
275.94 KB -
18/02/2021
GE Hydro
534.44 KB -
18/02/2021
Hydro Tasmania
1.19 MB
Consultation on revised draft scenarios
On 3 March 2021, AEMO held a public workshop on submissions to the Draft IASR, including the presentation of a revised set of draft scenarios, based on stakeholder feedback. The new scenarios were presented on slides 20-24 of the workshop slide pack. A recording of the workshop was made and is available below. Stakeholders were given until 17 March to make written submissions on the revised draft scenarios.
Consultation process
The National Electricity Rules require AEMO to develop, consult and publish the IASR in accordance with the Australian Energy Regulator’s (AER’s) Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines. Under these Guidelines, AEMO is required to follow a “single stage process” which requires that the publication of this Draft IASR follows from meetings with Consulted Persons.
In developing the Draft IASR and the proposed scenarios, AEMO has sought stakeholder input and feedback through a number of workshops and webinars. The below table provides further detail on the key dates of this formal consultation, framed within our stakeholder engagement to date.
For further information, see the Opportunities for Engagement and FRG webpages.
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Previous stakeholder engagement
As part of the consultation process to develop new scenarios, AEMO organised three workshops and two webinars ahead of the publication of the Draft IASR. The below presents the webinar presentation slides and recordings.
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22/10/2020
Scenario narrative development webinar presentation slides
1.76 MB -
22/10/2020
Scenario narrative development webinar presentation recording
44.4 MB -
12/11/2020
2021/22 Forecasting and Planning IASR – Scenarios webinar presentation
1.1 MB -
12/11/2020
2021/22 Forecasting and Planning IASR – Scenarios webinar presentation recording
75.59 MB
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Other supporting documents
The following supporting documents are of relevance to this consultation.
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18/12/2020
Lewis Grey Advisory: Gas Price Projections for the 2021 GSOO
517.76 KB -
18/12/2020
Lewis Grey Advisory: Gas Price Projections for the 2021 GSOO data
159.69 KB -
11/12/2020
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020
1.46 MB -
11/12/2020
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020 - workbook
865.29 KB -
11/12/2020
Wood Mackenzie: Draft Coal cost projections 2020
1.1 MB -
16/06/2020
BIS Oxford Economics: 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts October Update
2.14 MB -
16/06/2020
CSIRO: 2020 Projections for small scaled embedded technologies report
2.48 MB -
23/06/2020
Green Energy Markets: 2020 Projections for distributed energy resources – solar PV and stationary energy battery systems report
2.19 MB -
27/08/2020
AEP Elical: Assessment of Ageing Coal-Fired Generation Reliability
1.4 MB -
11/04/2019
Entura Report Pumped Hydro Cost Modelling
1.02 MB -
27/06/2016
Fuel and Technology Cost Review Report ACIL Allen
1.92 MB -
10/08/2016
ACIL ALLEN - AEMO Emission factors 20160511
147.04 KB -
11/12/2020
Transmission Cost Database Phase 1 Report
1.16 MB -
27/03/2020
2020 GSOO supply input data files
88.22 KB -
30/11/2018
GHD Report - Reference document provided as an action item of the October 2018 meeting
5.83 MB -
11/12/2020
Indicative REZ Boundaries (GIS Data)
46.31 KB
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