Scenarios, inputs, assumptions, methodologies and guidelines
AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. If necessary, confidential information is withheld from public release, but incorporated in the modelling conducted to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.
The documents contained in this page provide the collection of guidelines, methodologies, scenarios and inputs considered in AEMO’s Planning and Forecasting publications. The documents may change as AEMO releases new or updates existing methodologies, inputs, scenarios or assumptions.
Consultation on 2020 Forecasting inputs and assumptions
AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM), including the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP). AEMO has prepared a Consultation Paper to provide information and seek stakeholder submissions on inputs and assumptions for AEMO’s 2020 forecasting and planning publications, including:
- Changes required to key inputs and assumptions used in AEMO’s 2019 NEM planning and forecasting publications that affect AEMO’s supply and demand forecasting models.
- CSIRO’s latest 2019-20 GenCost draft which provides an annual update to generation technology costs.
For further details please visit:
AEMO invited submissions on the inputs and assumptions to be used in Forecasting and Planning publications for 2020. A joint webinar with CSIRO gave stakeholders an opportunity to to discuss the GenCost 2019-20 Draft Report. The submissions and webinar presentations can be viewed on the consultation page.
2019-20 Scenarios, inputs and assumptions
The use of scenario planning is an effective practice to manage investment and business risks when planning in a highly uncertain environment.
Scenarios form a critical aspect of AEMO’s forecasting and planning, providing the information needed to assess future risks, opportunities and development needs in the energy industry. It is vital that the dimensions of scenarios chosen cover the potential breadth of plausible futures impacting on the energy sector and capture the key uncertainties and material drivers of these possible futures in a consistent way.
AEMO has selected five scenarios, which have been developed following extensive consultation with industry, academia and consumers. They provide a suitably wide range of possible developments varying in two primary directions – the extent of decarbonisation by the energy industry, and the degree of decentralisation within the sector.
The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions to be applied in AEMO's forecasting and planning activities for 2019-20.
2019 forecasting and planning scenarios, inputs and assumptions report
The scenarios, inputs and assumptions are described in this report, following engagement from consumers and industry through the Planning and Forecasting Consultation. This included feedback provided directly at workshops, one-on-one discussions, and through formal submissions.2.81 MB
2019 Input and Assumptions workbook
This spreadsheet contains key scenario data used as inputs in AEMO’s market models for 2019 Planning and Forecasting activities. This version 1.5 contains the latest input data used for the 2020 ISP modelling.9.75 MB
Forecasting and planning methodologies
The following reports and guidelines contain descriptions of the methodologies and processes applied in AEMO’s demand and energy forecasting, market modelling and power system planning.
Electricity demand forecasting methodology information paper
This document contains descriptions of AEMO’s various forecasting methods for estimating future energy consumption across consumer segments and regions, as well as estimating Maximum Demand and Minimum Demand for various probability thresholds.2.12 MB
Market modelling methodology report
This document contains descriptions of AEMO’s various methodologies for simulating integrated energy supply developments for the electricity and gas systems.1.66 MB
2018 system strength requirements methodology
This document contains descriptions of the methodology AEMO uses to determine fault level nodes in each region, and calculation methods used to determine the minimum three phase fault levels to be maintained at these fault level nodes.5.27 MB
2018 inertia requirements methodology
This document contains descriptions of the methodology AEMO uses to define inertia sub-networks in the NEM, and the calculation methods used to determine the satisfactory and secure inertia levels required to be available in these inertia sub-networks.2.86 MB
Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG)
The RSIG sets out how AEMO implements the reliability standard, including the approach and assumptions to electricity demand, generation availability and reliability (including intermittent and energy-limited generation), treatment of extreme weather and network constraints.559.26 KB
Medium Term Projected Adequacy System Assessment (MT-PASA) process description
This document outlines the procedure used in administering the MT PASA, which assesses power system security and reliability under 10% Probability of Exceedance (POE) and 50% POE demand conditions based on generator availability and network capabilities.924.36 KB
Reliability forecasting methodology paper
This document explains the key inputs and assumptions AEMO will use to determine whether a reliability gap exists in the context of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO), and the methodology for determining the parameters of any reliability gap.509.9 KB
Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) methodology
This document explains the key supply inputs and methodologies involved in producing the ESOO outcomes in more detail.382.62 KB
Reference materials used to support the development of the inputs and assumptions.
Current supporting materials for 2020 (supporting NEM and WEM 2020 ESOO)
Driver: Macroeconomic forecasts
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts2.13 MB
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts - COVID-19 update
BIS Oxford Economics provided an updated range on the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, considering newer information available after the initial forecasts were finalised. AEMO’s forecasting considers both the original forecasts and the COVID-19 update.744.12 KB
Driver: Forecasts of Distributed Energy Resources
Current Supporting materials for 2020 (pre NEM 2020 ESOO)
Archived supporting materials for 2019
Driver Report Databook CSIRO GenCost 2018
CSIRO, GenCost 2018: Updated projections of electricity generation technology costs (external link) GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review (5.83 MB, pdf)
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review databook (567 KB, xlsb)
Core Energy, 2019 Wholesale Gas Price Outlook
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook report (2.2 MB, pdf)
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook databook (5.8 MB, xlsx)
2019 Planning and Forecasting consultation
AEMO thanks the broad range of stakeholders from across the energy industry for their valuable contributions that helped inform the scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies summarised on this page.
The consultation paper, workshop packs and stakeholder submissions can be found on the 2019 Planning and Forecasting consultation page.