2022 ISP inputs, assumptions and scenarios
AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. Confidential information is withheld from public release, but is incorporated in the modelling conducted, if necessary, to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.
2022 Forecasting Assumptions Update
AEMO consulted on minor updates to assumptions relevant to annual supply adequacy assessments of the NEM and eastern and south-eastern Australian gas markets. Details of this consultation can be accessed at the following link.
2020-21 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios
AEMO completed its consultation on Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios (IASR) in July 2021, taking into consideration feedback provided on the Draft IASR published in December 2020, as well as from several stakeholder workshops and webinars. The 2020-21 IASR will be used to develop the 2022 ISP. Details of the consultation can be accessed below.
2020-21 IASR consultation page
AEMO also consulted on its Draft Transmission Cost Report which, forms part of the 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report. Details of the consultation can be accessed below.
Transmission Cost Report Consultation
The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions currently applied in AEMO’s Forecasting and Planning activities.
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10/12/2021
Addendum to the 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report
This report contains additional information on key issues discussed in the 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report.
524.86 KB -
30/07/2021
2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report
This report contains the description of the 2021-22 inputs, assumptions and scenarios used in AEMO’s 2021-22 Forecasting and Planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM).
5.26 MB -
30/07/2021
2021 Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios Report Overview
This overview summarises the five scenarios within AEMO’s 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report.
588.61 KB -
30/07/2021
2021 IASR consultation summary report
This report outlines how AEMO has taken stakeholder feedback into account in developing the 2021 IASR.
2.03 MB -
30/06/2022
Inputs, assumptions and scenarios workbook
This version contains the latest input data to be used for the 2022 ISP modelling.
9.83 MB -
06/08/2021
2021 Transmission Cost Report
This report presents a summary of the design, capacity and cost estimate for candidate transmission projects in the 2022 ISP.
4.19 MB
Supporting materials for 2021 (including for the 2022 ISP)
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Reference materials
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20/12/2021
Detailed Electric Vehicle databook
This databook contains more granular detail on charge profiles and regional uptake, complementing the detail within the 2021 Inputs and Assumptions Workbook.
634.89 KB -
27/08/2020
AEP Elical: Assessment of Ageing Coal-Fired Generation Reliability
1.4 MB -
30/07/2021
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020 - workbook
867.92 KB -
30/07/2021
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020
2.35 MB -
16/06/2021
BIS Oxford Economics 2021 Macroeconomic Projections Report
3.14 MB -
16/06/2021
CSIRO 2021 DER Forecasts Report
1.87 MB -
16/06/2021
CSIRO 2021 EV Forecasts Report
1.47 MB -
30/07/2021
CSIRO Multi-sector modelling
3.32 MB -
11/04/2019
Entura Report Pumped Hydro Cost Modelling
1.02 MB -
27/06/2016
Fuel and Technology Cost Review Report ACIL Allen
1.92 MB -
27/03/2020
2020 GSOO supply input data files
88.22 KB -
16/06/2021
GEM 2021 DER Forecasts Report
9.9 MB -
30/11/2018
GHD Report - Reference document provided as an action item of the October 2018 meeting
5.83 MB -
30/11/2018
GHD Data package - Reference document provided as an action item of the October 2018 meeting
565.98 KB -
10/12/2021
Indicative REZ boundaries 2021 - GIS data
52 KB -
18/12/2020
Lewis Grey Advisory: Gas Price Projections for the 2021 GSOO
517.76 KB -
11/12/2020
Transmission Cost Database Phase 1 Report
1.16 MB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities Gladstone Grid Reinforcement
1.45 MB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities QNI Medium and Large
1.23 MB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities CQSQ Transmission Link
878.91 KB -
30/07/2021
Strategy Policy Research: Energy Efficiency Forecasts 2021 – Final Report
9.44 MB -
30/07/2021
Synergies Discount Rate report
981.15 KB -
30/07/2021
Transmission Cost Database - GHD Report
4.64 MB -
30/07/2021
Transmission Cost Database Output Files
5.04 MB -
10/12/2021
Transmission Cost Database - User Manual
1.23 MB
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Other relevant input sources
Demand trace data
Regional files
The files below provide draft regional demand traces, by components for each NEM region for both 10% and 50% probability of exceedance (POE) maximum demands and for 11 different reference years (2010-11 till 2020-21) by scenario.
Note that electricity demand for the production of both domestic and export hydrogen is not included in any of the components below for any scenario. Demand associated with hydrogen production is modelled separately according to the approach outlined in AEMO’s methodologies and IASR.
Each of the zipped regional files includes:
- OPSO: Contains half-hourly regional demand traces for operational demand (demand after the impact of rooftop PV and PVNSG). Note that operational demand on the forecasting portal includes demand from EVVPP which is not included in this trace component.
- OPSO_PVLITE: Contains half-hourly regional demand traces for operational demand (demand before the impact of rooftop PV and PVNSG)
- OPSO_MODELLING: Version of demand used in AEMO’s market modelling. OPSO_MODELLING = OPSO – ICL + EVVPP.
- PV: Contains half hourly regional generation traces for rooftop PV
- PV_TOT: Contains half hourly regional generation traces for all embedded PV, including rooftop PV and PVNSG. Generation from PVNSG can be found as PV_NSG = PV_TOT – PV.
- EV: Contains half hourly regional aggregate electric vehicle charging
- ESS: Contains half hourly regional aggregate customer installed battery charging/discharging. ESS is capturing the net impact of battery storages (charge – discharge). To remove ESS from OPSO you would subtract it: OPSO - ESS
- VTOH: Contains half hourly regional aggregate discharging from electric vehicles to homes (only used in the Step change scenario).
- EVVPP: Coordinated EV charging (targeting low demand periods, helping to lift minimum demand). Not reflected in demand traces
- ELECTRIFICATION_BUS: Electrification impact on the business sector
- ELECTRIFICATION_RES: Electrification impact on the residential sector
- ICL: Estimated interconnector losses (to allow netting off those if you are modelling interconnector losses in the market modelling).
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2022 Draft demand trace data (regional)
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21/12/2021
NSW Step Change POE10
318.32 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Step Change POE50
318.3 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Step Change POE10
314.58 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Step Change POE50
314.53 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Step Change POE10
310.5 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Step Change POE50
310.4 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Step Change POE10
276.96 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Step Change POE50
276.95 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Step Change POE10
320.99 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Step Change POE50
320.98 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Progressive Change POE10
309.73 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Progressive Change POE50
309.71 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Progressive Change POE10
305.3 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Progressive Change POE50
305.27 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Progressive Change POE10
301.62 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Progressive Change POE50
301.54 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Progressive Change POE10
272.65 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Progressive Change POE50
272.65 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Progressive Change POE10
311.27 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Progressive Change POE50
311.28 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Hydrogen Superpower POE10
318.85 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Hydrogen Superpower POE50
318.83 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Hydrogen Superpower POE10
314.9 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Hydrogen Superpower POE50
314.87 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Hydrogen Superpower POE10
310.89 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Hydrogen Superpower POE50
310.81 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Hydrogen Superpower POE10
278.26 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Hydrogen Superpower POE50
278.16 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Hydrogen Superpower POE10
321.81 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Hydrogen Superpower POE50
321.8 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Slow Change POE10
260.07 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Slow Change POE50
260.08 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Slow Change POE10
258.52 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Slow Change POE50
258.56 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Slow Change POE10
254.55 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Slow Change POE50
254.56 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Slow Change POE10
247.53 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Slow Change POE50
247.58 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Slow Change POE10
261.16 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Slow Change POE50
261.17 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Strong Electrification POE10
320.39 MB -
21/12/2021
NSW Strong Electrification POE50
320.37 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Strong Electrification POE10
314.37 MB -
21/12/2021
QLD Strong Electrification POE50
314.34 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Strong Electrification POE10
312.04 MB -
21/12/2021
SA Strong Electrification POE50
311.97 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Strong Electrification POE10
279.57 MB -
21/12/2021
TAS Strong Electrification POE50
279.39 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Strong Electrification POE10
321.61 MB -
21/12/2021
VIC Strong Electrification POE50
321.61 MB
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Subregional files
In AEMO’s ISP modelling, Queensland and New South Wales were split into subregions be better capture the impacts of intraregional transmission bottlenecks. Modelling files are provided for these subregions for anyone looking to recreate AEMO’s modelling. Specifically, the following files are available (see above for explanations):
- OPSO_MODELLING
- PV
- PV_TOT
These are available for 10 different reference years (2010-11 till 2019-20) for the following subregions:
- New South Wales: Northern NSW (NNSW), Central NSW (CNSW), Sydney-Newcastle-Wollongong (SNW) and Southern NSW (SNSW).
- Queensland: Central-North Queensland (CNQ), Gladstone Grid (GG) and South Queensland (SQ).
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2022 Draft demand trace data (subregional)
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21/12/2021
CNQ Step Change
177.36 MB -
21/12/2021
CNSW Step Change
174.74 MB -
21/12/2021
GG Step Change
168.93 MB -
21/12/2021
NNSW Step Change
174.88 MB -
21/12/2021
SNSW Step Change
175.38 MB -
21/12/2021
SNW Step Change
177.47 MB -
21/12/2021
SQ Step Change
178.69 MB -
21/12/2021
CNQ Progressive Change
177.17 MB -
21/12/2021
CNSW Progressive Change
175.79 MB -
21/12/2021
GG Progressive Change
168.75 MB -
21/12/2021
NNSW Progressive Change
174.53 MB -
21/12/2021
SNSW Progressive Change
176.33 MB -
21/12/2021
SNW Progressive Change
177.19 MB -
21/12/2021
SQ Progressive Change
178.5 MB -
21/12/2021
CNQ Hydrogen Superpower
177.44 MB -
21/12/2021
CNSW Hydrogen Superpower
174.39 MB -
21/12/2021
GG Hydrogen Superpower
344.05 MB -
21/12/2021
NNSW Hydrogen Superpower
175.55 MB -
21/12/2021
SNSW Hydrogen Superpower
174.81 MB -
21/12/2021
SNW Hydrogen Superpower
177.63 MB
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2022 Variable Renewable Energy trace data
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21/12/2021
Firm contribution factors VRE
2.04 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2011
357.95 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2012
365.27 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2013
363.84 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2014
362.11 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2015
366.71 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2016
366.72 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2017
363.5 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2018
369.81 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2019
368.78 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2020
366.75 MB -
14/02/2022
Solar Traces r2021
361.76 MB -
21/07/2022
ISP Solar Traces (new since Draft)
90.58 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2011
310.74 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2012
311.99 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2013
311.45 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2014
312.39 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2015
310.62 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2016
310.67 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2017
309.44 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2018
311.56 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2019
311.56 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2020
296.51 MB -
14/02/2022
Wind Traces r2021
295.55 MB -
21/07/2022
Wind Traces (new since Draft)
112 MB
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2020 Inputs, assumptions and scenarios
2019-20 Inputs, assumptions and scenarios
The following documents detail the scenarios, inputs and assumptions used in Forecasting and Planning activities in 2019-20, notably the 2020 ISP.
Archive for inputs and assumptions workbook
Archive Supporting materials
Reference materials used to support the development of the inputs and assumptions.
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Archived demand trace data 2020 and 2021
2021
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14/09/2021
NSW CNSW sub-regional demand traces
246.61 MB -
14/09/2021
NSW NNSW sub-regional demand traces
242.62 MB -
14/09/2021
NSW SNSW sub-regional demand traces
246.95 MB -
14/09/2021
NSW SNW sub-regional demand traces
250.02 MB -
14/09/2021
QLD CNQ sub-regional demand traces
247.74 MB -
14/09/2021
QLD GG sub-regional demand traces
235.86 MB -
14/09/2021
QLD SQ sub-regional demand traces
250 MB -
14/09/2021
South Australia - regional demand traces
240.32 MB -
14/09/2021
Tasmania - regional demand traces
228.52 MB -
14/09/2021
Victoria - regional demand traces
242.56 MB
2020
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27/08/2020
NSW CENTRAL 2020 forecast
281.07 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
284.47 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW HIGH DER 2020 forecast
295.14 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
282.69 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
314.2 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD CENTRAL 2020 forecast
289.41 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
293.24 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD HIGH DER 2020 forecast
292.82 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
280.19 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
312.96 MB -
30/08/2020
SA CENTRAL 2020 forecast
282.43 MB -
30/08/2020
SA FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
284.62 MB -
30/08/2020
SA HIGH DER 2020 forecast
285.27 MB -
30/08/2020
SA SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
275.13 MB -
30/08/2020
SA STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
304.82 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS CENTRAL 2020 forecast
273.02 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS CFAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
275.63 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS HIGH DER 2020 forecast
276.93 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
267.8 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
299.02 MB
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Supporting materials for 2021 (supporting NEM and WEM 2021 ESOO)
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Supporting materials for 2020 (supporting NEM and WEM 2020 ESOO)
Driver: Macroeconomic forecasts
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16/06/2020
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts
2.13 MB -
16/06/2020
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts - COVID-19 update
BIS Oxford Economics provided an updated range on the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, considering newer information available after the initial forecasts were finalised. AEMO’s forecasting considers both the original forecasts and the COVID-19 update.
744.12 KB
Driver: Forecasts of Distributed Energy Resources
Forced outage rate projection
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Supporting materials for 2020 (pre NEM 2020 ESOO)
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Other relevant input sources
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Archived supporting materials for 2019
Driver Report Databook CSIRO GenCost 2018
CSIRO, GenCost 2018: Updated projections of electricity generation technology costs (external link) GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review (5.83 MB, pdf)
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review databook (567 KB, xlsb)
Core Energy, 2019 Wholesale Gas Price Outlook
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook report (2.2 MB, pdf)
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook databook (5.8 MB, xlsx)